JCL Blog

RetroDex is Tomorrow (and Comdex too)

If you are in Seattle or Silicon Valley (Mountain View) on the evening of November 16th, you should join us for RetroDex.  It should be a bunch of fun.  Info and registration here.  Use the code "CSGfriend" for a discount.

This has been a very fun project.  Starting new things is something I like to do and it is the all consuming part that I like the most.  I suspect my blogging frequency will be picking back up later this week.

We started this whole project because Comdex is being reborn this year as a virtual event.  If you have not yet registered for ComdexVirtual click here.  

Today we closed the loop on the Comdex theme with our new Escape from Las Vegas web based game.  So tomorrow when you are sitting there doing the Comdex thing virtually, you can have a little fun by playing our game.  Try it out and let us know what you think.

Also, we are partnering with the UP CON 2010 Cloud Computing Conference for discounted tickets.  If you did not get the special offer email, please send us an email at sales@retrodex.co.  If you are already going to UP CON 2010, check your bag for discounted tickets to RetroDex.

Three Trends to Watch in 2011

I want to get a jump on this prediction season with a few thoughts about things I think will be significant for selling to the enterprise in the year ahead.  

  1. Protecting Corporate Data:  There is an obvious and large need for better protections for corporate informational assets.  Anyone who can address this need will jump ahead of their peers.  This is not just a technology issue – better policies and procedures will be required to address the ever growing willingness of employees to share everything with everyone.
  2. Run Ahead of Expectations Transference:  My favorite example of this is Mint vs Quicken.  Quicken has been the market leader forever.  Mint is elegant and easy to use.  Quicken users did not even know they were unhappy until they started using other elegant and simple systems that do complicated things (online banking for example).  They expected more than what Quicken was offering and as soon as they saw it – they jumped.  That is why Intuit bought Mint for $170 million.  This is going to play out in CRM and other legacy systems.  Anyone not yet unhappy with enterprise CRM – will be soon.  I bet the solution will look like Mint.com.
  3. Search/Location:  Enterprise search is way behind consumer search and getting farther behind.   We no longer have any patience for organizing things.  Searching the enterprise for people, things, expertise, and trends is going to be gigantic.  If you knew what your employees were searching for and if they found it – would that information be useful to you?  Why are we not doing this right now? Google just put one of their MVPs, Marissa Mayer, in charge of its location based initiatives.  Properly executed, location specific search will enable you to put “my house” in the search box and up pops your house.  In terms of the enterprise, I will expand this to include context specific help.  Being able to present different information to different employees based on their context will increase productivity and satisfaction immensely.

Who Is Driving Technology Sales: The Consumer or the Enterprise?

Even though a significant majority of technology purchases are made by businesses, the consumer is rapidly gaining a meaningful position in the market.  According to Gartner, in 2010 businesses will drive 72% of technology purchases.  The iPhone/iPad revolution is largely driven by consumer purchases.  As these devices are introduced into the enterprise computing environment, IT professionals are developing strategies for managing them.  Forward thinking technology marketing people are presently working to understand how these changes will impact IT purchasing decisions in the enterprise.

Here we examine the arc of this revolution and make an attempt to help marketers position themselves for the evolved technology marketplace.

The Cost of Selling is High for the Enterprise and Low for the Consumer

Maybe it is cheap to sell to the consumer because consumer products are cheap, or maybe consumer products can be offered cheaply because it is cheap to sell them.  Either way, it costs much less to sell to the consumer than the enterprise, and in some cases the cost of customer acquisition is approaching zero.   Alternatively, over on the enterprise end of the spectrum, we find companies like Salesforce.com – whose largest expense is for customer acquisition.  For 10 years SFDC has spent over 50% of their gross margin on sales and marketing – and this year they will spend over $700 million.  Ten times as much as it will cost them to deliver their services.  Right behind Salesforce.com are Oracle, IBM, HP and Microsoft each spending over 20% of their gross margin on Sales and Marketing. 

When it comes to selling the approaches cannot be more different, consumer companies like Google sell by getting their customers to act as their own salespeople (filling out a form on the web), quite a contrast to Salesforce.com and the others who are seeking business customers by blanketing the earth with salespeople and partners.

Getting to Market:  To Advertise or Not To Advertise

Even companies with buckets of money must select a go to market strategy and concentrate their resources in what they believe are high value activities.  There are as many opinions about which strategy works best as there are CMOs – but just about all CMOS will agree that resources must be concentrated in high value activities consistent with their strategy.  Anyone spreading their resources thinly over too many activities is doomed.  The decision tree starts with advertising.  There are companies like Apple and Dell that go big on advertising and PR and companies like Microsoft and HP that invest their resources in building partner ecosystems.  A completely different third approach is lowering prices so far that solutions sell themselves.  Google and Craigslist price their services at 1/10th of their offline competitors.  Prices this low promote themselves – a $3,000 car or a $1 movie ticket would not require advertising or salespeople – the newspapers would write about it and the message would spread virally.

Let Someone Else to Pay

There is no charge for using a search engine or web service like Twitter or Facebook.  Using a free product does not make you a customer however.  The customers of these companies are the advertisers, and their payments for advertisements make it possible for companies like Google, Twitter and Facebook to offer valuable services for no charge to those benefiting from them.  No monetary charge would be a little more accurate.  The truth is:  those not paying for a service are not the customer, they (or their data) are the product being sold to someone else.  This is where the gulf between consumer and enterprise gets interesting.  Individuals are much more willing to give up their data in exchange for a free service.  Enterprise data is almost always a strategic asset and therefore most businesses are reluctant to trade their data for services.  Salesforce.com’s clients are businesses and they pay for the service because giving up their data to be sold to a third party would undermine their viability.  Google gets right up to the line on this one because they are selling the data they have about their customers to third parties – and many of their customers are businesses.  Admittedly Google is not going to one client and saying they will sell the content of another client’s searches or emails.  They will however allow one client to present advertisements to a targeted audience that is likely to include its competitor’s customers or employees.  This is evidence that the gap between consumer and enterprise buying habits is closing.

Mixing it up:  Put the Blender on Whip

Twenty years ago, with the exception of a few intrepid door to door salespeople, the consumer went to the store and salespeople called on businesses.  Then Amazon.com brought the store to the consumer’s home, and Dell cut out the salesperson by giving businesses the ability to serve as their own salespeople over the phone and web.  The consumer and business buyers including those in the technology market had been oil and water, and they were about to get poured into the blender.  When the first killer app for the consumer oriented Mac turned out to be the business oriented use case of desktop publishing – it was like hitting the chop button on the blender.  Employees connecting their home computers to corporate networks, enabled largely by broadband deployment, was the equivalent of the stir button. Social media tools like MySpace, Friendster, LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter turned the blender up to puree.  And as we are learning in our one question survey this month, the iPhone and iPad have cranked the margarita making machine up to whip and the water and oil have emerged as thick as chocolate mousse.  With consumer tech and enterprise tech all whipped up together, selling technology now takes on a combination of enterprise selling and consumer selling tactics. 

Enterprise Marketing Must Change

Right now there is a great deal of energy being invested by enterprise marketing people in social media.  This is important, but not the only area where the enterprise / consumer collision is impacting the market.  We will never know if the big brains at Apple developed their iPhone/iPad strategy with an eye on the enterprise market.  Intentional or not, their shiny new devices are changing the marketplace and buying patterns significantly.  Starbucks is moving to HTML 5 and away from dot net as a result.  Flash is being marginalized.  And products like those from Parallels that tie the new environment together, are ramping fast.  Enterprise marketers need to free their minds from a focus on making the things they have always done more efficient and start experimenting to develop new strategies that are effective in this new marketplace.

On the Horizon

As participants in technology marketing for the enterprise, these are the trends we expect to see accelerate as a result of the blending of the consumer and enterprise markets:

Social Media:  Clearly social media will be central to these changes, both driving and being driven by the marketplace evolution.  The key to social media is authenticity.  They key to authenticity is flexibility and IQ.  Companies with intelligent and autonomous actors on social media platforms will win.  It does not hurt that the highest value customers are the early adopters of social media.  100 years ago, when telephones had been deployed in 10% of the households, companies realized that the early adopters of the telephone were on the high end of the socio-economic ladder and should be treated as such.  Once telephones achieved 98% penetration, and the overwhelming majority of phone calls came from average customers, companies shifted their approach from high investment in high value customers to cost containment.  This is why a Comcast customer can get a high quality response from @comcastcares, and not from the Comcast call center.  Comcast knows the demographics of their social media savvy customers.  It will be some time before social media is democratized.  To Do:  Get smart people into the social media game.

Computer Operators:  Before the computerization of the telco central office, switching was done by telephone operators.  An operator could manage approximately 200 telephone lines.  We now have 180 million land lines and over 200 million mobile lines in the US.  If we had to rely on manual switching – we would now require 1.9 million telephone operators.  Thanks to automation we only have 22,000 telephone operators now and none of them are switching calls.  In the early days of the computer an operator with significant training was required to run the device.  This continued during the early days of the PC.  The devices were complicated enough that every user was essentially a trained computer operator.  It has only been in the last 10 years that computers could be operated without the barrier of significant training.  The iPhone and the iPad are revolutionary in that they require no specific training at all.  A child can pick one up and figure out how to use it.  Many businesses now operate without a single IT resource on staff.  Computer operators are not dead however, they have shifted to managed IT service providers, web service operators, and application developers.  This trend will continue to accelerate.  Business will be less technically aware and will purchase services from specialized service providers.  The service providers will have all of the computer operators and accordingly will increase in sophistication and technical capabilities.  This will split the marketplace into the sellers of the services and the sellers of the underlying technology.  The services will be purchased by people with business needs and a low level of technical sophistication.  The underlying technology will be purchased by people with an extremely high level of technical sophistication.  To Do: Market services by business use case and technology by engineering merit.

Partners Migrate to Service Sales:  The bifurcation of technology into unsophisticated (technically that is) buyers of services and very sophisticated buyers of the underlying technology will force a split in sales and marketing strategy.  The big technical deals will get bigger and will be increasingly sold using internal salespeople.  This will shrink the high end of enterprise technology sales and marketing done through partnerships. Who is going to sell servers to Amazon.com?  IBM, Dell, HP, and others will be competing for that deal directly.  Who is going to sell desktops to the law firm?  Channel partners.  Historically those partners have been companies.  Of course because partnerships are relationships, and relationships are between actual people, the reality has always been that the success of these partnerships depend heavily on the relationships between the people inside the companies.  For fifty years, people have been getting more and more mobile, a trend that has been accelerated by the latest economic challenges, and facilitated by social media tools.  Technology companies that are able to shift their thinking from partnering with companies to partnering with people will jump well ahead during this transition.   To Do:  Orient partner programs to individual people that sell services.

In the years ahead businesses will remain the most significant source of revenue in the technology industry. Businesses will however increasingly behave like consumers when purchasing service offerings. They will be looking for cost effective solutions to their most pressing needs, and they will be buying those solutions on short lead times and with relatively low technical sophistication. Vendors and solution providers that position themselves for this change will win in the transition.

Consumer and Enterprise: Oil and Water?

Somewhere around the fifth grade we learned that oil and water do not mix.  I was reminded of this lesson not long ago when my daughters did the experiment that we all probably did in grade school.  They put oil and water in a glass beaker and stirred them up – and then watched them separate.  Anyone who has introduced water into engine oil, via a blown head gasket on an old engine for example, also knows that with enough heat, pressure, and agitation: oil and water can be whipped into a grey goo that takes some time to separate.  Of course the lesson from grade five still stands and the oil and water do separate eventually, but it takes longer than you might think.  With constant heat, pressure and agitation the two incompatible substances can be mixed. 

Thanks to Steve Jobs, this same thing is happening right now in technology marketing.  The incompatible substances are the consumer buyer of technology and the enterprise buyer of technology and the mobile device is the heat, pressure and agitation.  Consumers are bringing mobile devices into the enterprise and disrupting the computing environment significantly. 

Here are some of the differences between Consumer and Enterprise technology buying:

We are currently conducting a One Question Survey of IT decision makers and asking them:  What one technology product changed your business computing the most in 2010?  The number one answer so far is the iPhone.  I thought it would be up there, but I did not think it would be number one.  Number two is VMware’s virtualization suite. 

The survey is still ongoing – so if you want to weigh in on this matter you can do so here.  It will only take one minute to fill out the one question survey.

We will be announcing the final results at our RetroDex events on November 16th.  You can learn more about RetroDex here.

The Microsoft Thread in the News

Here is an interesting post from Computerworld about Linux losing its spark.  I wonder how much of the Linux movement was or is powered by dislike of Microsoft.  If Linux is losing its steam it could be because the anger or angst about Microsoft has declined.  The article I link to here does not propose such a thing as the reason -- instead it lists too many versions of Linux and the decline of the fat client.

Here is an insightful post by Robert Scoble with an interview with Starbuck's CIO, Stephen Gillett, about their new in store digital network -- now live in 6,800 stores and attracting 31 million users per month.  The overwhelming majority of users are on iPhones and Ipads -- so that means Safari browsers and no Flash and no dot net for Starbucks.  

Here is an article in the Wall Street Journal about Steve Job's not so candid appearance on the earnings call (it sounds like he is reading a statement to me) where he blasts away at a bunch of competitors, calls Windows the most open system in history, links Android to Windows and makes an effort to sweep Microsoft and Google away at the same time.

Admittedly, Microsoft is not the center of any of these events or coverage, but there is an interesting thread running through them all.  Collectively they cause me to ask the question:  As Microsoft fades in industry importance -- who is going to fill the void?  I would argue that there is no one ready to fill Microsoft's shoes and that is creating a vacuum that makes everyone uncomfortable.

It will be interesting to see what news comes out of the Microsoft PDC next week

RetroDex Plan D

It seemed like such a simple idea.  Everything Channel decided to bring back Comdex -- but as a virtual event.  I could not imagine Comdex without after hours parties -- even if it was set in a virtual Las Vegas.  Plus I could not wrap my head around a virtual party.  I even joined second life and walked around in there looking for ways to have a party -- my old brain just could not put that together.

So RetroDex was born.  In its current form, RetroDex is two after hours parties in local markets timed to coincide with Comdex Virtual.  

Along the way we had all kinds of ideas and not all kinds of time. We chased our tails a bit.  Built up a team, and today we launched events in Silicon Valley and Seattle.  You can read all about it at the RetroDex site.

If you are one of the many people we talked to while we have been making our plans, thank you.  Your feedback has helped immensely.  If you are one of my amazing team members working tirelessly on this project -- thank you for making this possible.

Here is a list of things that surprised me along the way:

 

  1. Having a party just to socialize after a day of virtual event going is not compelling enough.  So we added great feature speakers (Robert Scoble and Larry Walsh).
  2. Bringing together like minded channel partners to collaborate on an event is nearly impossible. So we skipped the collaboration and just hosted the thing ourselves.
  3. Riding the media wave created by Comdex did not happen -- because so far there has not been a media wave.  I still think this could change, but I have been very surprised that the media has not picked up on the Comdex big, Comdex explodes, Comdex dormant, Comdex back as virtual, RetroDex as after hours Comdex parties story.  Seems interesting to me.

 

So here we are on Plan D.  This just would not be fun if we didn't make it to at least plan G before November 16th.

A few months back I wrote a post about how great things happen when they are tied to events -- because events have dates that cannot slide.  How true!

 

 

One Question

Harvey Mackay wrote a great book in 1995 called Swim With the Sharks.  In it he tells a story about going to a convention of envelope makers (hard for me to imagine too, but he was in that business) where a veteran of the envelope biz asked him:  "what do you get for your scrap?".  That is with the "s".  Turns out that the difference between making it or not making in the envelope business is how much you get for those little scraps of paper that don’t make it into a finished envelope.  I gather the envelope business is pretty price competitive!

I bring up this story because in many situations there is one question that can tell the whole story.  There is one question that illuminates layers upon layers of information about a person, a project, or a business. 

That old guy at the convention of envelope makers learned all he needed to know about Harvey Mackay’s envelope business when he asked that one question.  From the answer he would discover if Harvey knew what he was talking about, if Harvey’s business was running well, and if Harvey might know something useful. 

Every business and many situations have a “one question” like this.

If you hire a lot of people, you probably have your favorite interview question.  Sure you ask 20 questions, but there is probably one that tells the whole story.  For me it is:  “Tell me about the worst place you ever worked.”  Our company culture is very important to me and I want to know how someone is going to contribute positively to our culture.  The answer to this one question tells me if the person will take ownership of their positive contribution to our company culture.  If you are hiring for a technical position, you might ask a question specific to the technology – something like “How do you get around the memory allocation problem in ___?”.  You can see here that I don't hire the technical people but you get the idea.  The answer to one properly asked question tells you the whole story.

Great salespeople employ this one question methodology all of the time.  Our clients are marketing people and asking them:  “What is the performance metric you are most worried about achieving next quarter?” tells a lot.  From the answer we find out if they are inclined to measure things, if they have one problem or many, and what they are going to be thinking about when staring at the ceiling at 3 AM.  Armed with that information we know if we can help them or not.  All in One Question.

The Media Spotlight Eludes the Enterprise

Even people immersed in enterprise computing would rather follow the latest product announcement by Apple or Facebook than the latest news about Network Attached Storage, or Business Intelligence Software.

You might be thinking that those business IT people probably have their own media outlets to follow and we just don't see them.  After all, we don't see news about the sewage treatment industry either but we know it is there.

I would think CIO magazine would be the place that the enterprise types hang out.  Top story today?  Windows Phone 7 and Verizon gets the iPhone.

According to Gartner the 2010 worldwide IT spending by the Enterprise will be $2.4 trillion of an overall market of $3.4 trillion.   Those of you doing the math know this makes the enterprise 72% of all IT spending.  Add into this the fact that many of the consumer tech companies like Google and Facebook are really paid in advertising dollars -- and we can't help but conclude that the technology industry is clearly dominated by the budgets of businesses.

So why no coverage?

According to Wikipiedia, Business Intelligence is computer based techniques used in spotting, digging out, and analyzing business data....often aimed to support better business decision making.  According to Gartner, the German firm SAP is the leader in the Business Intelligence market with 22.4 percent share.

This stuff is just not interesting.  No wonder we all just want to talk about the movie about Zuckerberg.

We have to figure out how to make enterprise computing interesting.

 

Facebook is the Paris Hilton of Tech

Smart phones, tablets, TVs, app stores, Twitter, and Facebook (and the movie) sure seem to get the bulk of media attention.  HP now has over $114 billion in revenues, the largest part generated selling to the enterprise, but their consumer products get all of the coverage.  IBM has 400,000 employees and also generates nearly $100 billion in revenues – rarely ever mentioned – because it is focused on the enterprise.  Microsoft, well Microsoft just never gets mentioned.  See my post the other day on the Pew Study.  If Larry Ellison wasn’t pulling stunts with the Americas Cup or Mark Hurd, no one would ever cover Oracle in the media.

Real work is being done hardening networks against cyber terrorism, lowering total cost of computing, developing and enforcing enterprise standards, safeguarding large amounts of sensitive data, and developing industry specific solutions.  This work is done with rarely a mention in the press.  My explanation:  enterprise computing is complicated, hard to understand or explain, and most of all it is boring.  To Journalists, Facebook is Paris Hilton.  Write about either of them and your web site gets hits.  Write about lowering energy consumption in data centers and you might as well be covering anything having to do with sub Saharan Africa’s problems.

We really have not had big coverage of business tech issues since Y2K – over a decade ago.  Could it be that we are due for a surge in enterprise coverage?  It may make sense to think for a minute about events that could cause this to happen and how it might impact the technology industry.

Here are three things that could bring enterprise computing closer to the center of technology media coverage:

  1. A Big Security Event:  Let’s hope it never happens, but if a big section of the power grid goes down, or all of the credit cards become inoperable, or a cyber attack crashes the stock market, the media will start to pay attention.
  2. Follow the Jobs:  If big tech starts hiring again and makes a dent in the unemployment rate it will be a big story.  Unfortunately, this probably is a result of the changes we would like to see instead of the cause. 
  3. Someone Connects the Dots: Google and Facebook are largely considered consumer businesses.  They are however, big enterprise operations in their own right however.  The media could latch onto the fact that Google’s network of data centers, gigantic databases, and all of the infrastructure required to run its business is cool and worth paying attention to.

What would change and why should we care?

  1. The Money Follows the Media:  A lot has been written lately about how the VC business is changing.  The story is that the investment exits are not there and new tech start ups don’t need as much money to start.  It is true that someone building for the Apple App store does not need to raise much if any venture capital, and may never go public.  Venture capital is needed just as much now as ever before.  The VCs do seem to follow the media, so if the media goes enterprise, maybe the VCs will too.  Thomas Friedman would sure be happy if we started funding green tech instead of another Twitter clone.
  2. Exports Up:  Technology innovation is something we can do well and we can export.  Enterprise computing is harder to knock off than a movie or an iPhone. If we build more capacity in our big business computing services – we could export it.  Companies like IBM, HP, Microsoft, Oracle, and others are already doing this in a big way – so we know how to do it.  And the balance of trade needs attention.
  3. Do Our Part:  If this were to happen, all of us could be proud of our contribution to the worldwide economic recovery.  Instead of presenting a military face to the world, or fancy financial engineering – which deploys just as much of a scorched earth approach as the military, we could be helping companies and governments around the world increase their productivity.  And they would pay us for it!  Good for us and for them. 

I hope someone figures out how to make enterprise computing interesting enough to get some media attention.  Could do us all some good.

Cool Car, Cool Idea

The new Tesla all electric sedan is not going to be out for over a year but that has not slowed down the Tesla PR machine.  Yesterday they did a joint announcement with Autodesk, the maker of Autocad computer aided design software about the new Model S going on display at Autodesk in San Francisco.  

This is a great example of using partnerships, in this case a vendor, to promote products.  Both Tesla Motors and Autodesk win and there is very little cost for either company.  Cool.

Follow the Money (budget) to the Money (revenue)

An interesting pattern is emerging in Tech Marketing.  The gap between the haves and the have nots is growing.  I don't mean the rich and poor citizens of our country, even though that gap is growing too, but the gap between the marketing ideas that get budget and the marketing ideas that do not.

The industry has been quantifying results for long enough now that senior decision makers are gaining confidence and cutting the budgets of marketing activities that cannot prove their value.  At the same time, new revenue is scarce and getting more valuable by the day, so those same budget cutters are increasing their spending on activities that work.

The days of doing the same thing as last year -- just because it was done last year (and the year before) -- are coming to a close.  The rotation is happening inside many large companies where one area is being starved of budget while another area is getting expanded resources.  I am sure there are examples of companies that are starving their entire marketing budget -- clearly not a strategy for survival.

All of this is about marketing ROI.  I don't mind bragging that my getting to the fourth paragraph of this post without actually invoking ROI, the most overused business term in the universe, is quite an achievement.  Want an eye roll in your meeting today -- start in about marketing ROI!  Anyone interested in restoring ROI to a position of usefulness in business dialog needs to campaign to tie ROI to the desired end result.  Discussion of ROI to intermediate results is a waste.  The desired result in marketing should be revenue, not impressions, page views, inquiries, leads, downloads or anything else that currently gets measured (because it is easier to measure).

If your idea can prove ROI to Revenue -- you will be in the big budget bucket.  ROI to intermediate metrics or no ROI at all -- the shrinking bucket. 

 

More Fuel for the Cloud

In the last 24 hours I have come across three stories in the media that give the cloud movement even more reason to be gaining momentum.  If you are following the cloud acceptance / cloud vs desktop story, you may want to check them out.

NPR On the Media - Laptop Searches at the Border:  The segment is towards the end, but the rest of the show is also worth listening to.  The story highlights the work of the ACLU in pursuit of the US Government for overly aggressive search and seizure of laptops at the borer.  This is a very good reason to use cloud services and not keep any data on your laptop.  I suspect the government is tracking activities on the cloud as well, so if you are up to no good -- you are probably no better off there.  But if you are a law abiding citizen worried about getting caught in the government's web -- the cloud is probably safer.

NY Times:  Microsoft + Russian Government against activists:  Unfortunately for Microsoft there is a very disturbing story on the front page of the NY Times today about how the Russian government is using Microsoft piracy claims to seize computers of people they don't like.  I suspect that if the Russian government wants to take your computer -- they are going to take your computer.  So again, the cloud would be a good place to put your data.  And for Microsoft -- any type of collaboration with the Russian government is likely to end badly (ouch!).

Dell Gets Blasted by the Haggler:  Again in today's NY Times the typical tale of woe.  Hard drive fails, sent back to Dell, lost again, lost again, in a Sisyphean tragedy we all know too well.  Same remedy, keep your data in the cloud and access it with multiple machines or devices or even someone else's machine.  Then you can still get your work done even while *insert vendor name here* is doing whatever they can to make your life miserable.

Maybe there is something to this cloud computing thing.

Selling to the Enterprise is Hard Work

Selling is getting harder and this is causing a vicious cycle.  The harder it gets the more desperate salespeople get.  Desperate salespeople do unseemly things (lying to my gatekeeper is a minor offense compared to full on deception through the sales process).  Bad behavior by salespeople brings down any prospect's willingness to engage in any sales process -- making selling even harder.  And so on...  The deflationary trend in the economy only amplifies these problems.

Some companies get around this by eliminating salespeople all together.  Amazon and Google really don't have salespeople.  They have developed self service sales processes and have lowered their prices to a point where customers sell themselves.  I have a few posts on the topic of selling, here is a list.

Companies that sell complex products or services to big business clients (aka the enterprise), do not have the luxury automating and lowering the cost until the thing sells itself.  The most dramatic proof of this can be found in the sales and marketing budget of Salesforce.com.  I have a few posts about that as well, here is another list.  

What then do we do in an age where white papers and webinars and spam are well, just spam, and salespeople don't add value because any person with both the technical capability customers value and the social skills to be a salesperson increasingly chooses a technical career?   Here are two trends I have observed in the marketplace that may be the manifestation of this new reality:

Consolidation

Companies that know how to sell have a big advantage. Oracle is a company that knows how to sell.  Their sales practices are both legendary and ruthlessly efficient.  Sales and marketing at 20% of revenue may seem high, but only a fraction when compared to Salesforce.com's 50%+.  Think of it this way, when Salesforce.com spends a dollar on sales and marketing -- it gets $2 back.  When Oracle spends a dollar it gets $5 back.  Big difference.

It is this ability to sell to the enterprise that Oracle is counting on when it buys all of those companies.  Here is a blog post on SoftwareAdvice that has a great chart of the last 100 or so Oracle acquisitions.  There is no reason to think that Oracle is going to shy away from exploiting its unique ability to sell to the enterprise.  Gotta wonder of Oracle could fix Salesforce.com's cost of selling.  Hmmm.

More Dependence on Partners

Microsoft is a company that knows how to build partnerships.  In fact, running its channel partner program may be its core competency.  Microsoft partners know that Microsoft is committed to making them successful and both Microsoft and its partners invest side by side in the pursuit of new business.  Dell has recognized this and is working hard to build out a channel partner program as fast as possible.  If you sell to the enterprise, partners are critical.  

Consolidation + Partners = Opportunity

If companies that know how to sell to the enterprise acquire other companies, and companies that know how to sell to the enterprise rely heavily on channel partners, then the real work is going to happen when combining channel partner programs of merged or acquired companies.  We already see a great deal of this, and I suspect there will be more in the near future.  

The bottom line:  Highly valued high performance partners will benefit through this evolution.  Low performance partners will be redundant.  

 

Never Lie to the Receptionist

I get about half a dozen telemarketing calls per day and I don't take any of them unless they slip by my amazing gatekeeper.  I suppose this is ironic because my firm is in the business of managing channel partner programs for technology companies -- work we do mostly over the phone!  Thousands of times per day our valiant front line team members depend on the kindness of the gatekeeper to patch them through to the decision maker.  Granted, most of the calls we make are to channel partners with established business partnerships with our clients, but ironic nonetheless.

The other day a slippery guy from New York got past Kim by saying I was expecting his call.  She checked with me first, and I did not recognize his name, but she and I agreed to let him through.  The first thing I asked him was how we met -- we hadn't.  I then asked how I could have been expecting his call -- there was no way I could have.  I then asked him if he had lied to Kim.  He said that he did in order to get past her.

Turns out he was an investment manager.  He wanted me to trust him with my investments.  I suspect he wanted me to do that shortly after I forgot that he lied to my gatekeeper.  As you can imagine, the call ended rather abruptly.

Never lie to the gatekeeper.  If you have something valuable to talk about sell it on its merits.  If not, don't call.

Lowering Sales Costs

SoftwareAdvice.com had a great post recently about Oracle's next acquisition.  I encourage you to click through to the piece if for no other reason than to look at the great chart of Oracle acquisitions from PeopleSoft to the present.  

Clearly Oracle knows it is an enterprise computing company.  Selling to the enterprise is difficult and expensive and no one knows how to sell to the enterprise like Oracle.  Detractors often claim that acquisitions are a waste of money, and the recently announced Intel/McAfee deal will certainly add fuel to that fire, but when talking about the enterprise -- the cost of selling and long sales cycles is enough to make sense of many deals.

Ironically, Glen Hodges, President of McAfee until 2006 explains the Intel/McAfee deal with the same lowering the cost of selling angle in this post in the NY Times.  He points out that Intel's excellent channel partner program is underutilized and that the $7.8B price tag for McAfee could make sense just by having more for Intel to push through its highly efficient sales channel.

Now back to one of my favorite rants -- Salesforce.com.  One of the potential acquisition targets for Oracle listed in the SoftwareAdvice.com post is Salesforce.com.  Even Larry Ellison is not that crazy.  True, Salesforce.com proves the point that selling to the enterprise is difficult by spending over 50% of revenue on sales and marketing and combining the Salesforce.com and Oracle sales teams would represent hundreds of millions of dollars of savings.  But Wall Street never seems to notice this fact about Salesforce.com and has priced the stock at 193 times earnings!  In March I thought investors had lost their minds when the P/E was 114!  The industry is still in the low 20s.

Lowering the cost of selling is as important now as ever.  And it is on its way to even more significance as the talk of a double dip surges. 

Intel Wants the Consumer

The grass is definitely greener on the consumer side of the fence in 2010.  Companies that have built their businesses on their ability to sell to the enterprise, or that are a step or two removed from direct access to the consumer, are looking for a the gate through the fence. Increasingly mobile is that gate, and it appears that Intel thinks McAfee is their best shot at getting over there.

It is much more fun as a writer to be negative on announcements like this -- and the business press is having their share of fun with Intel.  Anyone that wants the business press to be positive should remember not to surprise them.  A few good leaks will get some of the journalists onto your side ahead of the announcement.  With the exception of Steve Jobs, who gets to play by a different set of rules, scoop equals page views, page views equals happy writers, happy writers equals "this is a brilliant idea".

Intel depends on the PC makers to get its chips to market and has managed to dominate that business over the years through business tactics that just keep getting them in trouble with the Justice department and the EU.   The top PC makers in the world control over half of the sales of new PCs including HP (18%), Dell (13%), Acer (12%), Lenovo (10%), and Asus and Toshiba tied (5% each).  The industry is on the rebound, up 22% in Q2, so everyone is growing.  However, HP and Dell are growing only slightly, and the other guys are smokin' with growth rates up to 87% (Asus).

The deal to buy McAfee may or may not be a good idea, but it does signal Intel's concern over its traditional route to market, and its corresponding desire to find a new route.  Their best domestic friends are getting pounded by the guys in Asia, and they are increasingly prevented from pulling monopolistic stunts, so I would guess there will be more deals to follow.

Other coverage:  

BusinessWeek

WSJ Digits Blog

Daily Finance

Read Write Web

CNet (for the PC industry numbers)

 

 

 

 

The Scoble Effect

If you think you are a big time tech blogger, google your name plus the word effect.  Good chance you will get nothing.  Then google "the scoble effect" and notice that the every one of the first 10 items are links to articles about the impact Robert Scoble has on the tech industry.  

So in my quest to figure out if Comdex Virtual is going to be anything in November I sent out this tweet yesterday:

@Scobleizer How are you going to cover Comdex -- now that it is virtual?

You probably already know that Robert Scoble gained his big time reputation because he is in the front row with his live audio or video feed running at literally every significant tech event .  Conversely, in the turn about echo chamber that is the tech industry, a tech event is not big time if Robert Scoble is not there.  His answer:  

Hmmm.  UBM has some work to do.

Comdex the Verb

Some would say that the adoption of your brand name as the accepted description of an action, preferrably the action of using your product, is the pinnacle of branding.  Xerox did it, Google did it, Kodak almost did it, although with a Kodak Moment, the brand is really an adjective modifying a moment. 

Sure it could be great if it happens, but an overt effort to make it happen could backfire.  Are we really ever going to say we Binged it?  Trademark lawyers advise companies to do whatever they can to avoid the adoption of their brand name as a generic description of an action -- because at that point protecting the trademark becomes difficult if not impossible. In fact, Xerox did for many years invest heavily to discourage people from using their name as a verb.  What an interesting world we live in.

Comdex is making a comeback this year after six years of dormancy.  Like many technology companies or even the technology industry itself, Comdex had an unbelievable rocket ship ride from 1979 to 2003.  The event topped out at about the same time that the internet bubble reached its peak in 2000 -- with over 200,000 people attending the main event in Las Vegas, plus the organizers staged many other events scattered around the world throughout the year.  At the end Comdex was the show everyone loved to hate -- and there was plenty to hate about fighting it out with a hoard of fellow geeks -- just to get a hotel room or a taxi.  I suppose that during its time as a must attend event, people eventually came to chafe at the must part.

United Business Media bought the carcass of Comdex in 2006 and has elected to bring the event back this year.  The setting is still Las Vegas, but this time it is a virtual Las Vegas.  No lines, no crowds, and much cheaper for everyone.  This virtual (and green) version of Comdex will really be something to watch.  The spectacle of the real Comdex had a way of dominating the tech news.  Strangely, we are 93 days from the virtual event, and the tech media is amazingly silent.  Google it and you get the press releases from March, search on Twitter and you get references to the MCX Comdex commodities exchange, search on valleywag - nothing, search on techcrunch - nothing, digg - nothing, techmeme - nothing.  Even a search for comdex on the UBM site  produces zero results.  Amazingly, a search on techweb -- the event producer -- no results.  (bear in mind that these links are live searches on those sites, so if content has been added after this posting -- search results may vary)

The other UBM company behind the event, Everything Channel, does not have search functionality on its web site, but does list Comdex on its events page

Given this media vacuum it would not be accurate to say that the whole industry is waiting to see what happens on November 16th and 17th.  It will be interesting however to see if the popular adaptation of "to Comdex" as a verb is different on November 18th.  

 

Who Talks on the Phone Anymore

Clive Thompson has a great piece in wired magazine right now about how minutes talking on the phone have been on the decline since 2007.  He points to the rise of other means of staying in touch, and the rising practice of text, email, or chat precursors to a call asking for permission.  I would imagine that caller ID helps us to not answer calls that we don't want -- further reducing the volume of calls.

I remember a time a few years back when I would come out of an hour long meeting and have 5 to 7 new voicemail messages -- in just one hour!  I had to clear out the box multiple times during a single day just to make sure callers were not presented with the voicemail box full message.

Now I have my voicemails delivered to my email box with caller ID info in the subject line.  Most of them never get listened to and I also get to listen to the ones I want in the order I want (like email).

The one thing that I would like to add to Clive's post:  I have more scheduled conference calls than ever before.  This must map to the expanded geography of the people I am working with, but I find myself doing this even for people close by that I would have otherwise met in person.

I wonder if this is tracked in the survey referenced, because often we will have ten or more people on these calls for a full hour -- something we never would have done before.  Also, does the tracking capture VOIP services like Skype and Google Voice -- there could be a rotation to that mode that is not visible to the phone data trackers.

Next up:  Video calls.  We are currently expanding our calling capabilities to have conference calls enhanced with video.  So don't count the phone as dead just yet.

Please Somebody Make the iPhone News Stop

I was not going to say anything about the iPhone 4 antenna thing because I thought that doing so would in effect say that I too think it is actually news.  

So instead I am going to just say the opposite -- this is not news, let's move on.  Can you believe the coverage?  Look at this search from the WSJ a few minutes ago:

If by some insufferable malady you still want to read more on this topic, try this post by Dave Winer.  I particularly like the part where he says this about Apple: "You have to count your change, and don't expect them to do the right thing, unless you twist their arm real hard, and usually it isn't worth the trouble..."

Let's move on to something...anything.