JCL Blog

Google becomes Microsoft as Microsoft becomes IBM

There was a good article in the NY Times business section today about Google.  Mostly about how Google is growing up.  It reminded me of talk around Microsoft at the peak of its ride.  At that time, the last thing Microsoft wanted to do was to become IBM.  But they have.  IBM has done an amazing job of reinventing itself as a consulting company, and Microsoft has taken over as the legacy systems company.

Google meanwhile, is under increasing pressure from governments about its monopoly power, and use of customer information.  All of the sudden, Google is spending just as much time and energy dealing with the government as Microsoft did with the Justice Department in its day.  Actually, IBM had that same problem too.  

So the pattern is:

  1. Old monopolist gets pounded by the government
  2. New entrant uses the opening to build a new monopoly
  3. New company is the darling of everyone (and stock goes to $600)
  4. New company becomes old monopolist
  5. Go to step 1


Also, today I started a new page where I am tracking the new tech bubble.  Check it out here.